Mr. Osamu Masuda, former President of Astomos Energy, was recently designated as Senior Adviser of the Japan Association for Promotion of Latin America and the Caribbean.
Mr. Masuda expressed his gratitude to Dr. Ritter Diaz, Representative Director of the Association for such a distinction and indicated that he will advise and support the work of the Association to create stronger bonds between Japan and the region of Latin America and the Caribbean.
On the occasion of the establishment of the Japan Association for Promotion of Latin America and the Caribbean (JAPOLAC), the Representative Director Dr. Ritter Díaz, former ambassador of Panama to Japan and Ms. Martha Zelayandia, honorary member of the association and former ambassador of El Salvador to Japan paid a visit to the Ambassador of Costa Rica to Japan, H.E. Alexander Salas Araya on Wednesday, January 20, 2021 with the purpose of explaining the objectives and activities of the association as well as exploring ways to cooperate with the Latin American and Caribbean Embassies to increase the visibility of the region in Japan. Mr. William Calvo, Minister Counsellor and Consul General of the Embassy also participated in the meeting.
On May 21 this year I wrote an article in my blog titled “Reopening: From flattening the curve to control COVID-19”. There, I mentioned that I am not an expert in public health, but I am a citizen concerned with the well-being of my fellow human beings, and who aims at finding a rational solution to the pandemic caused by Covid-19, without resorting to a total and prolonged confinement of the population.
In the early stages of contagion in Panama, during the second week of March, the government established a total quarantine, following a similar behavior of other countries, and as a natural reaction against a deceitful virus, which takes several days to develop in the human body.
At that moment, there was already knowledge everywhere in the world that Covid-19 was a viral respiratory illness, which became a new member of the already known coronavirus family. In regard to its background, we can mention SARS-CoV-I detected in Hong Kong in 2003 and its other cousin, MERS-CoV found in Saudi Arabia in 2012. Being a viral respiratory illnesses, its transmission goes easily from person to person through droplets when coughing or talking in close proximity with other people, the same way as happens with the common cold or flu.
Likewise, statistics has shown that the Covid- takes longer time to incubate in the human body compared with other respiratory illnesses, which makes an easy and quick transmission among people. However, according to the World Health Organization and governments around the world, 80 percent of the population experience light or no symptoms, 15 percent are gravely affected needing respiration aid, and 5 percent become critically ill, requiring ventilation and with low probabilities of surviving.
Another important characteristic of Covid-19 is its aggressiveness when infecting people with preexisting conditions, either elderly people or not so old persons. As a result, elderly people who are vulnerable due to underlying conditions or aging or other persons with preexisting conditions such as obesity, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, cancer, immunodeficiency, among others, have a high probability of dying if infected with Covid-19. These are the patients who mostly fill the Intensive Care Units of hospitals everywhere in the world, generating fears in health authorities in view of overwhelming number infected people, and thus, the inability of the health system to provide enough beds and equipment to treat this avalanche of vulnerable people.
When the pandemic reached Panama, health authorities declared the state of emergency on March 13 and later commanded a total quarantine, setting up a state of general confinement with the purpose of protecting the health of people and hoping to contain the contagion in the country. However, today 12 of July, almost four months since quarantine measures were implemented, the level of contagion has increased progressively since the end of May, reaching highest levels in July.
This situation has pushed the government to reassess its strategy, reformulating the course of action, based on the facts we all know. In this regard, I would like to make some suggestions, which I believe could help not only to contain the spread of the virus, but also start the punctual reopening of the economy with specific dates.
First, I would suggest placing all people with light Covid-19 symptoms in hotels, not in their residences. By sending them home, it increases the level of contagion as it is difficult to control the behavior of people in the family environment. We are a culture influenced by the heat of the tropic, making us restless, and especially when people know that they will be lightly affected by the virus. Besides, Covid-19 has revealed the great level of socio-economic inequality that permeates in our society, as well as the poor level of education reflected in the behavior of certain citizens who do not follow the health guidelines nor the quarantine. In addition, placing people in hotels would boost the income of one sector that has been hardly hit by the pandemic.
Second, I would recommend a national media campaign requesting people with underlying conditions to avoid leaving their houses until government measures reach an important level of control of Covid-19. The media campaign must create awareness among the population, so that all citizens at the workplaces, schools, stadium, gyms, cinemas, theaters and any other social space use masks and keep social distance in front or near vulnerable people.
Third, I would recommend including private clinics in the national effort to treat infected people, supporting the national health system, besides hiring more health workers and setting up addition medical facilities in convention centers. From the beginning, several countries set up medical facilities in tents and other installations to cope with the avalanche of people that would overload the health system.
Fourth, being Covid-19 a respiratory illness, the national media campaign should send a punctual message to the population, requesting everyone to seek early medical attention when feeling the lightest symptoms, such as fatigue, sore throat, light cough or fever, especially now that Panama is going through rainy season and common cold start to appear everywhere.
Fifth, I would suggest focusing on carrying out Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) in the areas of high level of infections (Chorrera, Arraijan, and San Miguelito) and any other places with new outbreaks, tracing infections and putting fires aside here and there. At this moment, I believe that Panama Center, East and West must have high level of infections (due to those infected who went sent home and other irresponsible people who do not follow the indications of health authorities).
Sixth, it would be advisable to carry out mapping with antibody tests (Rapid Diagnostics Test-RDT approved by the Federal Drug Administration of US), which should be applied in all provincial capitals to detect asymptomatic people and find out levels of immunity among the population. These tests must have specificity and sensitivity levels above 90 percent to achieve the highest possible levels of accuracy, avoiding false positives and negatives. This type of tests would serve
as complement for the PCR tests, contributing to monitor the trajectory of the virus in the country.
When the country starts the reopening of the economic activities, the government should allow companies and institutions to carry out antibody tests (RDT) to their staff. I understand that the Panama Canal will soon implement these tests among his employees.
I think the above suggestions will allow the government a reopening of economic activities in the short period of time, and the focus should no longer be the daily counting of infected people, but how much reduction there has been in the number of people who were place in the Intensive Care Unit or hospital rooms, besides avoiding more fatalities.
In sum, if the government focuses its efforts on the protection of vulnerable people, it will no longer need to worry about daily infected people. Already citizens know what to expect. And it will depend on each one to protect their love ones with underlying conditions, as I have been doing with some of my relatives with preexisting conditions.
If confinement measures did not produce good results in more than three months, insisting in this policy will cause the economic bankruptcy of the country with the ensuing wave of violence and political instability no one desires.
Authorities and health experts have done a great job in their efforts to protect the health of the population, however, the present situation demands the socio-economic protection of the nation, and to this end, we need leadership. As the US political analyst Zakaria Fareed mentioned, war is a very delicate matter to be left only to the generals.
We need the President to direct the country into a new dynamic to combat the pandemic, reopening economic activities, either by region or sectors, while coexisting and coping with Covid-19.
Many countries have already reactivated their economies while outbreaks continue to emerge in different places, as it is the case in Japan where I reside; Yet, it is the time to go back to work, coexisting with coronavirus and prioritizing the protection of vulnerable people.
Dr. Ritter Diaz
Independent Business and Government Consultant
Former Ambassador of Panama to Japan
When I moved to Panama City in the mid 80s to pursue university studies, I ended up residing in San Miguelito in the outskirts of Panama City. At that time, I was working during daytime and taking night classes at Panama University. So, I had to wake up around 5:15 a.m., take the bus at 6:00 a.m., and commute to my workplace to start at 8:00 a.m. After finishing classes, I usually returned home around midnight. In total, it took me over five hours to commute back and forth from my house to downtown Panama City.
Today, San Miguelito residents no longer have to commute long hours to go to the workplace thanks to the building and operation of Line 1 of Metro of Panama, S.A., which was later complemented with the construction and operation of Line 2 toward the east side of Panama City. Both transportation systems were built between 2010 and 2018 and have been operating regularly.
However, the Line 3 project to connect Panama City with the western province has experienced delay due to the complexity of the project, and now, due to the coronavirus pandemic. Unlike Lines 1 and 2, Line 3 has to pass through the Panama Canal, and was conceived as a cooperation project between the governments of Panama and Japan.
In this regard, in April 2016 during an official visit of President Varela to Tokyo, Panama and Japan negotiated a Memorandum of Cooperation for the financing and construction of Line 3 of Metro. Through this mechanism, Japan agreed to provide Panama with a yen loan equivalent to US$2.6 billion, to be paid in 20 years, with a grace period of 6 years and an a very low environmental interest rate, close to zero.
This agreement also included the use of Japanese monorail technology in view of its capacity to climb above six-degree slopes and move smoothly inside the city or over complex topographies. Japanese monorails are quite spacious, accommodating a large number of people in one wagon (up to 200 passengers per wagon). They are also environmentally friendly as they do not produce noise as regular trains, and it is expected to reduce CO2 emissions since many residents of Panama western province will prefer to leave their cars at home and commute to downtown Panama City in around 45 minutes, avoiding a two-hour traffic jam.
In fact, the Memorandum of Cooperation for the financing and construction of Line 3 is a unique scheme designed and adopted by the Japanese government to serve as model for future transport infrastructure projects in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean. However, it has taken a long time to implement this project due to delay in another important project: the Four Bridge over the Panama Canal.
As mentioned above, the complexity in realizing the Line 3 lies on the fact that it has to cross the Panama Canal. In fact, the Memorandum of Cooperation, in whose preparation I was involved from the beginning to the end, included the passage of the monorail over the Fourth Bridge, and for that purpose, Japan also offered financial support to develop the interface between the Line 3 and the bridge.
The adjudication of the Fourth Bridge project took place in July 2018, that is, after two years of the negotiation of the Memorandum of Cooperation between Japan and Panama. In addition, the construction phase of the Four Bridge was supposed to start around May 2019, however, after the change of government in July 2019, the new administration of President Laurentino Cortizo decided to modify the Line 3 project, making the monorail to cross the Panama Canal through a tunnel instead of passing over the Four Bridge.
The Cortizo administration explained that the construction of the Four Bridge posed a risk to the building and completion of the Line 3 since both projects are carried out by two different consortium. The Four Bridge was adjudicated to a Chinese consortium in July 2018 while the Line 3 project was adjudicated to a South Korean consortium in February this year. Thus, the government of Panama considered that it was better to separate the projects to ensure the responsibility of each consortium in the termination of the projects within the time allocated in the respective contracts.
I have no doubt that for the Cortizo administration, the delay in the execution of the Four Bridge as well as the experience of delays in the construction of the Atlantic Bridge over the Panama Canal on the Atlantic side made them believe that future and unavoidable delays in the construction of the Four Bridge could cause delays in the construction of the Line 3, with contractual and economic consequences.
Certainly, this change has meant another delay for the Line 3 project and prompted the government of Panama to exchange consultations with the Japanese government in order to gain its acceptance for the proposed modification, and as far as I understand, the Japanese government has understood the position of Panama and agreed to the proposed change.
Undoubtedly, the construction of a tunnel will create additional costs not included in the budget of Metro of Panama, S.A., which is the institution in charge of the execution of the Line 3 project. Therefore, the Metro of Panama will have to explore several financing options for the tunnel such as: 1) to request the South Korean consortium which was selected for the Line 3 project to provide for the financing; 2) to approach the South Korean government and explore the possibility of negotiating a cooperation loan as the selected consortium is from that country; 3) to borrow money in the international financial markets; or 4) to request an additional cooperation loan from the Japanese government, although I think this last financial option is less viable due to the large amount of money already committed by the government of Japan to this project.
The tunnel option will also prompt the Panama Canal Authority to accelerate dredging works in the Canal floor over the area where the tunnel will be built. These dredging works should be done before the construction of the tunnel and are necessary for the smooth navigation of Neo- Panamax vessels, which are increasingly being built bigger and, therefore, require a deeper draft.
I should point out that the Japanese government was interested not only in the financing and building of the Line 3 project, but also in the financing and building of the Four Bridge over the Panama Canal. This was agreed in principle in March of 2014 through a Joint Communique issued by the then Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Japan and Panama, Mr. Fumiio Kishida and Mr. Francisco Alvarez de Soto respectively. However, these projects were separated during the government of President Varela, who decided that the Line 3 project would be develop through a cooperation loan from Japan while the Four Bridge would go through a process of international bidding.
The reason for separating these projects lies in the fact that Japan was offering a steel bridge, which was a more expensive option, and also this type of bridge would pose an operational challenge to the Panama Canal as there would be a moment that the vessel transits would have to be stopped for more than 24 hours to install part of the structure. From the technical and operational point of view, it is well-known that the Panama Canal has a preference for cable- stayed bridges as they are much easier to install without interrupting the Panama Canal operation, and certainly, are less expensive. And we already have built two of these bridges over the Panama Canal: the Centennial Bridge and Atlantic Bridge.
After the signature of the Memorandum of Cooperation between Panama and Japan in 2016, the Line 3 project was scheduled to start operations around 2022. Yet, in view of delay of the Fourth Bridge, modification of the project and the coronavirus pandemic, we will probably see the beginning of construction of Line 3 in the summer of 2021 and his completion around 2025.
As I mentioned before, the Line 3 project is a unique cooperation model designed by the Japanese government to showcase the high-quality Japanese technology in public transportation in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean. It introduced a very convenient financing arrangement, which took into consideration the positive impact of this project in the environment, reducing noise and CO2 emissions. It is aimed at demonstrating the durability and safety of Japanese public transport technology vis-à-vis that of other countries.
Since it is a government-to-government cooperation mechanism, it has reduced 100 percent the chances of corruption, which has frequently affected large infrastructure projects in the recent past. In addition, as a cooperation project, Japan had to submit this project to the assessment of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in compliance with the cooperation guidelines of this international organization.
In a nutshell, the successful completion of the Line 3 project is of high importance for Panama and our region as it will encourage further cooperation in large infrastructure projects from
Japan, which is willing to engage and place his high quality technology in Latin America in the same way that Japan has done in many countries of Asia.
I just hope that from 2025, all residents from the western province of Panama can enjoy a better quality of life thanks to the Japanese cooperation.
Dr. Ritter Diaz
International Consultant
Tokyo, October 23, 2020